Showing posts with label MARKETSAsian. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MARKETSAsian. Show all posts

Friday, 21 December 2012

GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian shares slide as U.S. budget impasse creates anxiety

* MSCI Asia ex-Japan, Nikkei both turn negative

* Yen firms a tad on "cliff" woes but pinned near lows

* U.S. House of Representatives may reopen Dec. 27

* Oil, gold, euro slump as fears of budget crunch grow

* European shares likely to decline

By Chikako Mogi

TOKYO, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Asian shares slid on Friday after a Republican proposal to deal with a U.S. fiscal crunch failed to get enough support, deepening uncertainty over the U.S. can avert the "fiscal cliff" of automatic spending cuts and tax increases set to start Jan. 1.

"Markets disliked signs of further delay in talks, with the risk that a deal may not be reached by the end of the year deadline," said Yuji Saito, director of foreign exchange at Credit Agricole in Tokyo. "It clearly hit risk sentiment."

The U.S. House of Representatives will adjourn until after Christmas, Republican Representative Peter Roskam said on Thursday, after House Speaker John Boehner's proposed tax bill designed to avert the fiscal cliff failed to pass.

U.S. stock index futures fell sharply. S&P 500 stock futures slipped 1.7 percent, while Dow Jones stock futures and Nasdaq futures both lost 1.5 percent.

European shares will likely drop also, with financial spreadbetters predicting London's FTSE 100, Paris's CAC-40 and Frankfurt's DAX will open down as much as 0.6 percent.

The worrying U.S. political news sparked selling in Asian shares, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan wiping out earlier gains to tumble 0.7 percent. The index was on track to end the week down 0.6 percent, the first weekly loss in five weeks.

Markets broadly had been supported by optimism that U.S. lawmakers would avoid the fiscal cliff, which threatens to derail the U.S. economy and drag down global growth with it.

Boehner's proposal was aimed at extracting concessions from the White House, which had threatened to veto it, and advance talks closer to a deal.

The Republican-led U.S. House of Representatives, which abruptly recessed on late Thursday, may return as soon as Dec. 27 with a yet-to-be-decided new plan, said a senior party aide.

"This is a major setback for a Fiscal Deal compromise between the two parties. I would say that chances of a deal are down to maybe 40 percent from 65 percent -- despite the dysfunction in Washington D.C," said Douglas A. Kass, founder of hedge fund Seabreeze Partners Management Inc.

Risk assets were sold off, from shares, oil to currencies such as the Australian dollar and the euro. The yen firmed slightly, though it was pinned near multi-month lows versus the dollar and the euro on expectations for more aggressive Bank of Japan easing next year to drive the economy out of deflation.

"The delay in resolving the U.S. fiscal cliff problem is raising concern as the market expected some sort of positive direction out of the talks by the end of the year," said Fujio Ando, a senior managing director at Chibagin Asset Management.

Safe-haven government bond prices rose, with U.S. 10-year Treasury yields moving away from an 8-week high hit this week, falling about 6 basis points to 1.74 percent. Benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yields also ticked down half a basis point to 0.765 percent.

Inflows into U.S. Treasuries underpinned the U.S. dollar, which inched up 0.1 percent against a basket of major currencies .

Jim Barnes, senior fixed income manager at National Penn Investors Trust Co. in Wyomissing, Pennsylvania, saw Treasuries continuing to gain once U.S. markets open later, but expected a correction by the end of the day.

"Treasury yields will likely fall Friday morning and will begin to reverse course in the afternoon as investors become more optimistic a deal will be reached," Barnes said.

"So far, the market has been handling setbacks in negotiation talks very well. With still a little bit of time left on the clock, this time around will be no different."

Along with uncertainties surrounding the future of U.S. budget talks, a firmer dollar also weighed on dollar-based commodities.

The euro fell 0.3 percent to $1.3206, off an 8-1/2-month high of $1.33085 touched on Wednesday.

U.S. crude futures dropped more than $1 to $89.10 a barrel, but oil was still on track for its biggest weekly gain since August.

Spot gold extended losses to near a four-month low touched on Thursday, and was last down 0.1 percent to $1,644.90 an ounce. Gold remained on course for a 12th annual growth on rock-bottom interest rates, concerns over the euro zone financial stability and diversification into bullion by central banks.

YEN GAINS SLIGHTLY

Anxieties over the U.S. budget negotiations also took their toll on Japan's Nikkei average, which had been supported by a weaker yen. The Nikkei gave up all of earlier gains to close down 1 percent and below the key 10,000 mark it reclaimed for the first time since early April on Wednesday.

The dollar was down 0.4 percent to 84.02 yen, moving away from a 20-month high of 84.62 yen hit on Wednesday.

The euro slumped 0.7 percent to 110.91 yen also off a 16-month high of 112.59 yen reached on Wednesday.

The yen was kept under pressure after the Bank of Japan further eased monetary policy as expected on Thursday, with investors anticipating that the central bank will be persuaded to pursue more drastic measures next year.

The incoming prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has called for bolder action by the central bank to help bring Japan out of decades-long deflation.

For all the fears of a fiscal cliff debacle to come, several data series showed the United States remained on a recovery track, helping to underpin the dollar.


View the original article here

Thursday, 20 December 2012

GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian shares slip as U.S. budget talks sour, BOJ eases

* MSCI Asia ex-Japan falls but hovers near 17-month high

* Nikkei slumps on profit-taking from 8-month peak

* Yen firms in kneejerk reaction after BOJ eases

* Commodities ease, dollar index inches up

* European shares likely to decline

By Chikako Mogi

TOKYO, Dec 20 (Reuters) - Asian shares retreated from near 17-month highs on Thursday and commodities fell as negotiations to avert a U.S. fiscal crunch turned to personal taunts, putting at risk a timely solution as well as the health of the world's largest economy.

European shares will likely follow suit, with financial spreadbetters predicting London's FTSE 100, Paris's CAC-40 and Frankfurt's DAX will open down as much as 0.4 percent. A weak Wall Street start was suggested by a 0.4 percent drop in U.S. stock futures.

The yen firmed against the dollar and the euro in a kneejerk reaction as the Bank of Japan eased monetary policy on cue, expanding its asset-buying and lending programme by 10 trillion yen under intensifying pressure from incoming premier Shinzo Abe to confront chronic deflation.

Sentiment turned cautious towards risk assets in general, hurting commodities and commodity-linked currencies while keeping gold barely above its 3-1/2-month low hit earlier in the week. The dollar edged up 0.1 percent against a basket of major currencies.

"Negotiations are (not progressing) which is probably why we're seeing a sell-off today and the risk sentiment coming off," said Natalie Rampono, a commodities analyst at ANZ in Melbourne. "The markets are being directed by sentiment from the U.S. fiscal cliff talks and so that will have the biggest influence on prices at the moment."

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.4 percent but held near its highest in nearly 17 months, tracking global stocks which retreated from 17-month peaks on Wednesday on U.S. budget concerns.

Hong Kong shares also fell 0.5 percent after hitting a near 17-month high the day before.

But Australian shares defied the general bearish trend to add 0.4 percent to a 17-month high and Seoul shares ended up 0.3 percent on speculation conservative Park Geun-hye's victory in the presidential election would pave the way for fresh stimulus measures from the government.

The conflict over the stalled fiscal cliff talks grew heated Wednesday and threatened to become even more so Thursday when the action is expected to shift for the first time to the floor of the U.S. House of Representatives.

"If this discussion continues to go as it has gone today (Wednesday), watch for more selling off as hopelessness begins to take hold for many investors across all asset classes," said Neal Gilbert, market strategist at GFT Forex, in a note to clients.

The Nikkei stock average ended down 1.2 percent on profit taking after closing Wednesday up 2.4 percent and above the key 10,000 level for the first time since April, as earnings prospects for exporters improved on the weak yen trend which gained momentum with mounting expectations for more monetary easing.

The dollar extended losses to fall 0.6 percent to 83.93 yen after the BOJ's decision from around 84.20 before the announcement. It hit a 20-month high of 84.62 yen on Wednesday.

The euro slid 0.6 percent against the yen to 110.94 yen, sharply retreating from a 16-month high of 112.59 yen reached on Wednesday.

On top of expanding stimulus for the third time in the past four months, the BOJ also said it would review its guidelines for medium- and long-term price stability at its next policy-setting meeting in January. The current range is zero to 2 percent consumer inflation.

Traders said the yen's firmness was likely due to position adjustments before the year-end holidays after the big event, the last BOJ meeting for 2012, and likely to be short-lived.

"Market consensus is that the BOJ will have no choice but to strengthen its accommodative stance, and expectations for easing will remain intact," said Masashi Murata, senior forex strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in Tokyo. "The dollar/yen was choppy but it is likely that 84 yen level will prove to be a new support line," he said.

The euro inched down 0.1 percent to $1.3213, slipping from a 8-1/2-month high of $1.33085 hit on Wednesday after an Ifo Institute survey showed German business sentiment improving in December at its fastest rate in 2-1/2 years, boosting hopes Europe's largest economy will bounce back quickly after a weak end to 2012.

Data from the Investment Company Institute, a U.S. mutual fund trade organisation, on Wednesday showed investors in U.S.-based mutual funds pulled $8.48 billion from equity funds for the week ended Dec. 12, reflecting nervousness caused by the uncertainty over the U.S. fiscal cliff.

U.S. crude fell 0.5 percent to $89.53 a barrel and Brent fell 0.5 percent to $109.83.

London copper was down 0.6 percent to $7,879 a tonne.

Gold has fallen prey to funds taking profits before the year-end book-closing but having held above a key technical level, the metal's downside may be limited.

Spot gold steadied around $1,667 an ounce, above a 3-1/2-month low of $1,661.01 hit on Tuesday and its 200-day moving average.

Lacklustre equities slowed trading in Asian credit markets, widening the spreads on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment-grade index by 1 basis point.


View the original article here